People are putting the picture together of the coming Water Wars, but generally stop short of saying the obvious: world climate change has destabilized large parts of the world, principally due to drought and rising heat, and the consequent lack of water. This is the most dangerous trend on Earth, and a large minority of US politicians can’t even admit that climate change is happening. Damian Carrington, Food is the ultimate security need, new map showsA new map of food security risk around the world is, in some ways, depressingly familiar. Sub-saharan Africa leaps out as the place where the most people fear for their next meal, while the rich world has more to fear from obesity. But there’s plenty of salutary reminders and fascinating detail, like India’s food problems and the vulnerability of Spain.And it demonstrates the sickening, symbiotic relationship between lack of food and conflict: where one leads, the other follows.We must start with the worst, in the horn of Africa. In Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea, human failings mean a severe drought has tipped millions into famine. It’s a textbook case of why things go wrong. War begets poverty, leaving food unaffordable. Devastated infrastructure destroys both food production and the ability to truck in emergency food. The collapse of society means the effects of extreme weather such as drought cannot be dealt with. And the fear of violence turns people into refugees, leaving their livelihoods and social networks behind. If you move away from the Horn of Africa — where we can expect millions to die in the next year from famine — the really scary area is Pakistan/India/China. All three countries have serious food supply problems — in the map above red is most dangerous and green is least — and Pakistan and India are arch-enemies with decades of open conflict.India and China have fought several border wars, as well. It is almost impossible to imagine a good outcome there, where the rivers from the Himalayas cross Chinese territories, then India, then Pakistan. Three nuclear powers, with histories of conflict, requiring more water as their populations and water needs grow, and no obvious means to get more water locally. (Note: China is buying up arable land in other continents, and importing the food grown there back to China, which is one way to increase water: use water located elsewhere). The Water Wars are already here, we just haven’t started using the term, yet. Also note that very few regions are free of this danger. Notably, North America is positioned to become the breadbasket of the world, again. Although we can’t just look at that transactionally, because there is the huge externality of shipping away our water — in the form of foods — to other, drought-ridden countries. We will have to consider the full costs of shipping an apple, or a ton of wheat, to Spain or Turkey.

People are putting the picture together of the coming Water Wars, but generally stop short of saying the obvious: world climate change has destabilized large parts of the world, principally due to drought and rising heat, and the consequent lack of water. This is the most dangerous trend on Earth, and a large minority of US politicians can’t even admit that climate change is happening.

Damian Carrington, Food is the ultimate security need, new map shows

A new map of food security risk around the world is, in some ways, depressingly familiar. Sub-saharan Africa leaps out as the place where the most people fear for their next meal, while the rich world has more to fear from obesity. But there’s plenty of salutary reminders and fascinating detail, like India’s food problems and the vulnerability of Spain.

And it demonstrates the sickening, symbiotic relationship between lack of food and conflict: where one leads, the other follows.

We must start with the worst, in the horn of Africa. In Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea, human failings mean a severe drought has tipped millions into famine. It’s a textbook case of why things go wrong. War begets poverty, leaving food unaffordable. Devastated infrastructure destroys both food production and the ability to truck in emergency food. The collapse of society means the effects of extreme weather such as drought cannot be dealt with. And the fear of violence turns people into refugees, leaving their livelihoods and social networks behind.

If you move away from the Horn of Africa — where we can expect millions to die in the next year from famine — the really scary area is Pakistan/India/China. All three countries have serious food supply problems — in the map above red is most dangerous and green is least — and Pakistan and India are arch-enemies with decades of open conflict.India and China have fought several border wars, as well.

It is almost impossible to imagine a good outcome there, where the rivers from the Himalayas cross Chinese territories, then India, then Pakistan. Three nuclear powers, with histories of conflict, requiring more water as their populations and water needs grow, and no obvious means to get more water locally. (Note: China is buying up arable land in other continents, and importing the food grown there back to China, which is one way to increase water: use water located elsewhere).

The Water Wars are already here, we just haven’t started using the term, yet.

Also note that very few regions are free of this danger. Notably, North America is positioned to become the breadbasket of the world, again. Although we can’t just look at that transactionally, because there is the huge externality of shipping away our water — in the form of foods — to other, drought-ridden countries. We will have to consider the full costs of shipping an apple, or a ton of wheat, to Spain or Turkey.